On my local NJ parents Facebook group a concerned parent asked the following question –

I came across this article showing how Taiwan’s early action greatly curtailed the spread of Covid-19. Do any fellow parents believe we should preemptively close the school ASAP, instead of waiting for next week?

 

Even before I saw this post on Facebook I had emailed the director of my three year old daughter’s daycare. We actually didn’t send her this week – but I wanted to know how things would continue. Would this cost of keeping her home be all on my family? Or would the daycare be responsible and close for all families?

” Hi

Have you had any contact with the board of health or some other authority – about what the recommendations are for remaining open?

There seems to be a lot of school closings all over the country and a lot of articles in the past 48 hrs on social distancing.
Atlantic:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.amp.html

Additionally, I was sufficiently concerned that I had written an op-ed in The Philadelphia Inquirer about politicians having to make tough choices.

“No one knows for certain what happens next. Are the models that show U.S. cases doubling every seven days accurate or are some health-care professionals being dramatic? I sincerely believe that thoughts and prayers are rarely helpful in any public health crisis and that declarations of emergency matter less than deeds.”

Full op-ed – https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid19-cherry-hill-new-jersey-jefferson-20200310.html

 

This was my reply in the Facebook group :

“This isn’t about panic – it’s about action.
 
For now – it is literally about survival. We are not paying attention to the catastrophe unfolding in Italy. We are about 1-4 weeks away from that state of affairs (ventilators running out and healthcare workers having to triage who lives and who dies).
 
Community spread is already here – and unfortunately closing travel from other countries is is too little too late. Asymptomatic patients can still spread the novel coronavirus – we are all at risk, and patients >65 even more so.
 
The World Health Organization has declared it a pandemic. 118,000 cases, more than 4,000 deaths (3.4% mortality).
 
The in-house doctor for Congress apparently told a closed-door meeting this week that he expects 70-150 million people in the U.S. to contract the coronavirus.
 
Dr Anthony Fauci from the NIH said that it is “10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”
 
If the mortality rate is 0.5% that’s 350 000 deaths on the low end, and if 3% that is 2.1 million deaths.
 
Again – I’m advocating action (not panic). School and event cancellation seem prudent at this point… Despite the tremendous costs and burden it puts on all of us.
 
Our kids may not get sick, but grandma/grandpa may pay the price with their lives. (My mum is on immunosuppressants and I worry).
 
As an internal medicine physician – and I would be delighted to look really blood stupid and alarmist if this ‘hysteria’ abates in three months and we are all fine. In fact I pray I am proven wrong, but I’m terrified that everything we see in plain sight points to a bad outcome.
 
Re: Massive economic impacts – yes, we as a society will have to figure out what to do about missed paychecks, figuring out childcare, and defaulted mortgage payments. If we can bail out wallstreet in 08, consider 0 interest loans industries, slash business tax rates, I’m sure we can come together and figure something out.
 
Lets get through this first.”

 

Other reactions to her post :

She received more than a 120 comments. Parents were on both sides of the action plan – do nothing or increase social distancing efforts. Overall, like anything on social media – people responded with indignation, indifference, rage and humor.

A few seemed to understand the potentially devastating impact of COVID-19 but worried about the burden on caretakers; about lost income and upcoming mortgage payments if they had to stay at home with kids.

One man predicted school closures would need to happen, but slowly: “This is a very helpful discussion. I appreciate everyone’s view point. There are certain benefits and costs of keeping schools open, and certain benefits and costs of closing the schools. My view is that we should shut the schools down in a rapid manner, but not in a way that it would paralyze our society. People need to take appropriate measures to assure that their work schedule is worked out, or that they are able to work from home or that they have appropriate babysitting services lined up, etc. Schools need to work out kinks in remote learning. These things cannot, unfortunately, happen overnight. We need to do it at a controlled, measured way and not under-react or over-react.

A woman who was against school closures implored: “Please stop the hysteria. Trust facts from medical professionals (CDC, department of health, doctors, nurses).  Stop posting articles written by journalists. Journalists are not health care professionals!!!

Another invoked another disease to urge calm: “Where is the hysteria for the flu?
11 children died from the flu the last week of February 2020. Many of those did NOT have underlying medical conditions
136 total children died this flu season (higher than any other season w exception of 2009)
20,000 people have died from the flu this year!!! (according to CDC)
Did we close schools? No.
Did we panic, no.

It’s always amazing that two people can look at the same article and have completely different reactions.

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